FNUS75 KRIW 140958
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR NOWLIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
358 AM MDT WED SEP 14 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2017 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN THE AREA COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A DECENT SHOT AT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
ONLY A VERY SLIM CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE MOMENT...IT APPEARS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WILDFIRE AREA AROUND MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...SKRBAC/MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
                    IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AT 5-10 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 5.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.70 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-5800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6-10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (14000-40000 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80) IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-87 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    WEST.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOMING WEST 6-8 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1800-18000 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (18500-40000 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...SKRBAC/MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...ULF PETERS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110913.NOWLI.01/RIW