FNUS75 KRIW 151340
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOLE IN THE WALL...USFS SHF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
740 AM MDT THU SEP 15 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0704 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY OVER THE FIRE AREA. SOME PATCHY
MORNING FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. AFTERNOON CU IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM OVER
THE BEARTOOTH PLATEAU...BRINGING THE THREAT OF AN OUTFLOW MOVING
THROUGH THE FIRE AREA. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS A WIND
SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...T.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG THIS
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 2-4 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
                    5-10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AROUND 1100.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 TO
                    10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
                    MPH IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH BY
                    LATE MORNING.  SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND
                    MID AFTERNOON 5-10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTS TO 25 MPH...
                    DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BY LATE
                    MORNING.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.20 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS
10-20 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...T.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110915.HOLEI.01/RIW