FNUS75 KCYS 181521
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR NORTH CARNEGIE RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
921 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY EXPECTED AT THE BURN SITE
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE
LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN SWITCHING TO THE NORTH AND
THEN SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR
LESS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MONDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS
COMPARED TO TODAY WITH THE LEESIDE PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING
THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 23 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE LATER AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BURN
SITE MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 2100 AND 2300...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 3 TO 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 7-10 MPH
                    BY 1200.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (34500-115700 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 3-6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 200 FT
                    AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1000-44400 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78 TO 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING WEST
                    AROUND 11-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 23 MPH AFTER 1400.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 24 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (22600-116200 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...MAZUR
REQUESTED BY...DAN SWANSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110918.NORTH.01/CYS