FNUS75 KCYS 181852
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN CREEK RX...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1252 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BRING
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN SITE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WITH DOWNVALLEY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. PREVAILING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE
FOR MONDAY...WITH CANYON AND VALLEY EFFECTS KEEPING A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS AT THE BURN SITE...BUT STILL
BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING MONDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE
BURN SITE BEGINNING TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES...BUT LESS WIND AT
7 TO 11 MPH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40 TO 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNVALLEY 3 TO 6 MPH BY 2100.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1900-57000 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT) BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY
                    (30-40 PERCENT) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63 TO 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 4 TO 7 MPH MPH INCREASING 10 TO 16
                    MPH BY 1000...WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH THROUGH THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (22300-126500 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44 TO 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNVALLEY 4 TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (1900-57000 KNOT-FT).

$$
FORECASTER...MAZUR
REQUESTED BY...RICHARD PUTNAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110919.MORGA.01/CYS