FNUS75 KPUB 200953
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
353 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN HALF OF COLORADO THIS
MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION ACROSS THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 1100 AND 1300. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING...THEN LAST OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS. EXPECT THE
SURFACE WINDS TO HAVE A GENERAL EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM AS
UPSLOPE FLOW FEEDS HIGHER HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
SHIFT AROUND TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TERRAIN-INFLUENCED WINDS
RETURNING. CLEARING SKIES AT NIGHT WILL ENHANCE DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE
IN THE MORNING...THEN PLENTY OF SOLAR HEATING WILL ALLOW BRISK
UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12 MPH
AND AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

***THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS***

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (39 PERCENT). INCREASING
                    CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTH-NORTHWEST 5-9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    THROUGH 1100...THEN BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
                    8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 12500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46F.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST-SOUTHEAST 7-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 7 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
                    1200...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
                    ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST-SOUTHEAST 7-10 MPH THROUGH 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH AFTER 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

$$
FORECASTER...MOORE
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110920.BLACK.01/PUB