FNUS75 KGJT 192348
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LITTLE ELK...ASHLEY NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
548 PM MDT MON SEP 19 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS WELL SO OVERALL...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...POSSIBLE INFLUENCED MORE FROM THE LOCAL TERRAIN
THAN WINDS ALOFT. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING WHICH LOOKS TO BE PLACING A STRONGER AND LOWER
CAP TO THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS MAY LEAD TO DECREASED SMOKE DISPERSAL
CONDITIONS WITH CLEARING INDEXES STRUGGLING TO REACH 500 DURING
THE PROPOSED BURN PERIOD.

.WEDNESDAY...

MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH...POSSIBLY REMAINING
                    TERRAIN DRIVEN.
CLEARING INDEX......150 INCREASING TO 750.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS DEETS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110921.LITTL.01/GJT