FNUS75 KPUB 212027
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN RX...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
227 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A QUICK MOVING UPPER WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BURN SITE INTO TONIGHT.  GENERALLY DRY
AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BURN SITE FROM THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH TEMPERATURES(ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES) RUNNING WELL
ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(43 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-71F.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN EAST
                    AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-44F.
MAX HUMIDITY........67-76 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......EAST AROUND 12 MPH UNTIL 2300. NORTHWEST AROUND
                    10 MPH AFTER 0500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(34 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-76F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH LOCALIZED WIND
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110921.BLACK.01/PUB