FNUS75 KRIW 211914
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...BRIDGER-TETON NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
114 PM MDT WED SEP 21 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1253 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER WYOMING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RHS
WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TODAY WILL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SURGE MOVES INTO EASTERN WYOMING.  NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING A DECENT
WARMING TREND.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ALLEN

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-71 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 4-7 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1200 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (8600-52300 KNOT-FT).

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 13
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (14700-41300 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ALLEN
REQUESTED BY...RR IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110921.ASPEN.01/RIW