FNUS72 KMFL 221259 FWSMFL SPOT FORECAST FOR PILE BURNS...SEMINOLE TRIBE FIRE RESCUE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 859 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS PUSHING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL START SHIFTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO THE EAST...AND BY FRIDAY FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR TODAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST 6-10 MPH BY LATE MORNING AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR TO FAIR TODAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE POOR. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 56 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. DISPERSION INDEX....2 INCREASING TO 33. LVORI...............4. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM SKY (%).........60 60 70 70 70 70 WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE TEMP............86 91 93 90 90 83 RH..............71 60 56 60 61 77 20 FT WIND......E 4 E 6 E 6 E 6 E 6 E 4 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 EYE LEVEL WIND..E 4 E 6 E 6 E 6 E 6 E 4 EYE LEVEL WIND..10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1900 3400 5000 5000 4600 3300 MIXNG WIND......E 7 E 12 E 12 E 12 E 12 E 7 DISPERSION IDX..13 30 35 35 34 5 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 9 9 CHC OF PCPN (%).20 40 50 50 50 30 LAL.............3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 74. MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400-1900 FT AGL LATE IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 1 TO 2 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. DISPERSION INDEX....34 DECREASING TO 3 EARLY IN THE EVENING. LVORI...............9. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 93. MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 55 PERCENT. EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS. LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 3. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 1 TO 2 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 2 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 30 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 17 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. LVORI...............5. CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...KENNEDY REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL LIGHTSEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110922.PILEB.01/MFL