FNUS75 KGJT 232113
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR YOUTH CAMP RX...SOUTHERN UTE BIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
313 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WHICH
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY...BUT HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE SMOKE
DISPERSAL CONDITIONS. STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS SHOULD FORM UNDER
THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS MAINLY
TERRAIN DRIVEN. AS THE INVERSIONS MIX OUT DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HEATING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.
WITH CHIMNEY ROCK TO THE SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE...THESE WINDS MAY
BE MODIFIED. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT...
SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE LIMITED BUT STILL LOOKS TO REACH THE FAIR
TO GOOD CATEGORY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75 TO 80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH THROUGH
                    LATE MORNING...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO
                    10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO FAIR
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS INCREASING TO 6800 FT AGL
                    BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38 TO 43 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH AROUND
                    SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 2000 FT
                    AGL BY SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING...
                    INCREASING TO 8300 FT AGL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...RICH GUSTAFSON  FMO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110924.YOUTH.01/GJT