FNUS73 KPAH 241905 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PEABODY WILDLIFE AREA...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 205 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY ONCE THE SUN CAME OUT. EXPECT SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING MOSTLY NORTH OF YOUR AREA. DO EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT IN YOUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL WOBBLE SLIGHTLY AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...AS WELL AS INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE IN AND AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST...TAKING AWAY CHANCES OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 72. RH..................65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. CWR.................27 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2600-4400 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1700-2200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH. TIME (CDT) 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW TEMP............67 71 71 69 RH..............56 44 44 49 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 2.6 2.2 1.7 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.22 23 23 24 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55. RH..................MAX 80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 22 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............66 61 59 58 57 57 RH..............56 70 75 77 80 77 20 FT WIND......SE 2 S 2 S 2 S 3 S 3 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 700 800 1000 900 900 TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22 SW 23 SW 25 SW 26 S 25 S 24 CWR.............0 0 0 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 4 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78. RH..................MIN 38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................52 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-5700 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2100-2900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 23 TO 32 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............56 68 75 77 RH..............80 59 48 43 20 FT WIND......SE 5 S 6G10 S 7G20 SW 5G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1300 3800 5700 3800 TRANSPORT WIND..S 23 S 25 S 29 S 31 CWR.............50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...SPODEN REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MINOR TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110924.PEABO.03/PAH