FNUS73 KPAH 240248 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR WH FORD RTC BURN...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 948 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 24. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE RAIN THAT FELL THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...WOBBLING SLIGHTLY AROUND THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SUN...AS WELL AS INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE IN AND AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LOW AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST...TAKING AWAY CHANCES OF RAIN FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........68 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. RH..................52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1700-2400 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............68 69 69 69 69 67 RH..............52 51 51 51 53 56 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 5 5 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW S S TRANSP WIND SPD.16 17 18 18 15 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 55. RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 41 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............64 60 59 58 57 56 RH..............63 75 80 83 83 86 20 FT WIND......S 2 S 2 S 2 S 3 S 3 S 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....600 400 200 200 BLW100 BLW100 TRANSPORT WIND..S 8 S 7 S 7 SE 8 SE 8 S 6 CWR.............0 0 0 40 40 40 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE.........MAX 74. RH..................MIN 58 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................50 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1400-2100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............56 65 72 73 RH..............90 70 55 51 20 FT WIND......S 2G5 S 3G5 S 6G10 S 6G10 MIX HGT (FT)....300 2500 4300 3300 TRANSPORT WIND..S 10 S 10 S 21 S 25 CWR.............50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MINOR TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110924.WHFOR.01/PAH