FNUS75 KRIW 242102
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...BRIDGER-TETON NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 PM MDT SAT SEP 24 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1435 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS OVER THE FIRE TONIGHT.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WIND INCREASING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY FOR MONDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BERC

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........54-57 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER 10 PM.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600-2100 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6
                    TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND 9
                    MPH LATE IN THE NIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9700-35200 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (27100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (82700
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BERC
REQUESTED BY...RR IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110924.ASPEN.01/RIW