FNUS73 KPAH 251333 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PEABODY _25...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 833 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 25. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WHILE THE AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. OTHERWISE RAIN AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS THE HEARTLAND TODAY...EXITING THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE NOON ON MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL RETURN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRDIOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN LIGHT...REMAINING LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH WILL BE LIKELY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FINE FUELS...ESPECIALLY ONE HOUR FUELS...WILL BECOME SATURATED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP ABOVE 50 PERCENT...WITH VALUES BETWEEN 70 TO 90 PERCENT LIKELY BY LATE EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY...WITH MIXING HEIGHTS REMAINING BELOW 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING ON MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY...WHERE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATER TODAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........67 AT IGNITION...MAX 76. RH..................69 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 52 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1400-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3600-5500 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1900-2700 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 23 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............63 67 70 72 74 75 75 75 74 73 RH..............69 63 57 55 52 51 51 51 55 58 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.9 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.2 4.5 3.6 2.7 1.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.15 17 18 21 23 25 29 31 33 35 CWR.............0 0 0 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE.........MIN 59. RH..................MAX 97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE EVENING. CWR.................100 PERCENT DECREASING TO 84 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-2100 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 29 TO 36 MPH BECOMING WEST 17 TO 26 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....OCNL OCNL OCNL OCNL OCNL OCNL WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............69 65 63 62 61 60 RH..............65 75 80 84 88 91 20 FT WIND......S 3 S 4 SW 4 W 3 W 3 W 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (FT)....1200 1200 1600 2100 1800 1400 TRANSPORT WIND..S 36 S 33 SW 29 W 24 W 21 W 17 CWR.............100 100 100 80 80 80 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 3 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 69. RH..................MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5500-5700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 16 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7 AM 10 AM 1 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE TEMP............60 64 68 68 RH..............88 71 60 54 20 FT WIND......NW 3G10 W 4G10 W 5G10 W 5G10 MIX HGT (FT)....1400 2800 4500 5500 TRANSPORT WIND..W 15 W 14 W 13 W 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SHANKLIN REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MINOR TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20110925.PEABO.02/PAH