FNUS75 KPUB 251730
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER COLORADO WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE.  GENERALLY MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT THE BURN SITE THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THERE WILL BE A
GRADUALLY INCREASING THREAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.  LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS ARE STILL QUITE DRY SO
MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY.

WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY.  PATTERN TODAY AND TOMORROW LOOKS MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY...SO WIND FORECAST IS BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED AT BLACK
MOUNTAIN RAWS YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY NOT BE REPRESENTED WELL IN THE MODELS...SO WIND FORECAST BASED
ON PERSISTENCE AT BLACK MOUNTAIN RAWS MAY NOT BE ADEQUATE.  IF OBSERVED
WINDS DEVIATE FROM FORECAST WINDS BY TOO MUCH...RESUBMIT REQUEST AND
WE WILL TRY AGAIN.  IF I HADN'T CHOSEN TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST...I WOULD HAVE GONE WITH AFTERNOON WINDS UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-10
MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH TODAY.  SAME THING FOR MONDAY BUT I STILL WOULD
HAVE BROUGHT THE WINDS IN FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COOL FRONT OR BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN WEST TO
                    SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH UNTIL 1600...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    5-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52F.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL AROUND
                    1000...THEN NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH UNTIL
                    1300...THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH
                    UNTIL 1600...THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 12500 FT AGL AFTER
                    1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...DENNIS PAGE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110925.BLACK.01/PUB