FNUS75 KRIW 251830
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1230 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1140 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE FIRE AREA.
WESTERLY GUSTY WIND WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WIND WILL
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BERC

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........11-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800-6800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 9 TO
                    17 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (88200
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........56-59 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING NORTHWEST 9 TO 10 MPH BY 9PM.
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 7 TO 12 MPH AROUND 2 AM.
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (49200-97400 KNOT-FT).

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND
                    12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 21 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO VERY GOOD (60100-108200 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BERC
REQUESTED BY...ASPEN IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110925.ASPEN.01/RIW