FNUS75 KGJT 262136
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMS MESA RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
336 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1520 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER WAVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE STRONGER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
AND HELPING TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY IN TURN IS
LEADING TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES PROMOTING DEEPER MIXING AND BETTER
SMOKE DISPERSAL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH AT 10 MPH OR LESS
BUT MAY BECOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR PASSING SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS
OR VIRGA SHAFTS. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME TERRAIN DRIVEN NEAR SUNSET
AS SURFACE INVERSIONS SHOULD QUICKLY FORM WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
CONDITIONS IN TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR...BUT WITH LESS ENERGY
ALOFT THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PROPOSED BURN SITE.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-17%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND VIRGA.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........52-57%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH THIS EVENING BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE AT 3 TO 7 MPH NEAR SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DROPPING TO
                    POOR NEAR SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL DECREASING TO NEAR 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH AT
                    5 TO 10 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO GOOD
                    BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS IN THE MORNING...INCREASING
                    TO 9700 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...JEFF DAVIDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110926.SIMMS.01/GJT