FNUS75 KPUB 261601
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOUR ELK...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MDT MON SEP 26 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER BURN SITE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE THAT
COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM BOTH
TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY.  LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE
DRY SO MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED AT RED DEER RAWS
YESTERDAY.  OBSERVATIONS INDICATED GENERALLY LIGHT BUT RADICALLY
SHIFTING WINDS AT TIMES.  PATTERN TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY...SO THIS COULD HAPPEN AGAIN.  WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...FEEL BEST FORECAST IS TO GO WITH SLOPE/VALLEY CIRCULATIONS...
KEEPING IN MIND THAT OBSERVED WINDS COULD DEVIATE FROM THIS FROM TIME
TO TIME.  ALSO...SOME POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN SOME
PERIODS OF NORTHWEST BREEZES AT THE BURN SITE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
POSSIBLY 15 MPH AT TIMES.  IF WIND FORECAST IS NOT WORKING OUT...
PLEASE RESUBMIT AND WELL TRY AGAIN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (50
                    PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........GENERALLY UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-6 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    10-12 MPH AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 13500 FT AGL AFTER
                    1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTH AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42F.
MAX HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNVALLEY/DOWNSLOPE 3-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2400. 1000 FT AGL AFTER 0100.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH UNTIL 0200...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0400.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........GENERALLY UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    10-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 12500 FT AGL AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...SALIDA RANGER DISTRICT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110926.FOURE.01/PUB