FNUS75 KRIW 261808
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1208 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1137 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY FOUND OVER THE FIRE WILL WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. CURRENT CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FIRE
BETWEEN 1400 AND 1700 TODAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY...WITH ITS MAIN CONSEQUENCE BEING A NORTHERLY PUSH OF WIND.
WIND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE FOUND OVER THE FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SIMILAR
TIMING TO THE PUSH OF WESTERLY WIND TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH
                    BY 1400. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL BY
                    1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (61600-92600 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-37.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH BY 1800...THEN
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. GUSTS
                    UP TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....BECOMING NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH BY 1800.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH...DECREASING TO 3 OR VERY LOW
                    POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH
                    BY 0200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-5700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1900-2400 FT AGL
                    BY 0300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 8 TO
                    12 MPH BY 2000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (17200-58900 KNOT-FT).

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-64.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 TO 15
                    MPH BY 1200. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........BECOMING 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (27000-54600 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...ASPEN FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110926.ASPEN.01/RIW