FNUS75 KRIW 270949
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
349 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1958 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY...OR WEST TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE WILDFIRE AREA. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING WEDNESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE IMPACT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BECOMING WEST
                    NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10-15 MPH
                    BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL
                    BY 2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR BY 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 25 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD (62300 KNOT-FT) BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...UPPER PALMER RX
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110926.ASPEN.02/RIW