FNUS71 KBGM 272010 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR 2011 FLOOD RECOVERY...NYS DEC FOREST RANGERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 410 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1557 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFTER 2 PM. .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-1200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 26 TO 28 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1900...THEN 3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 900-1200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 26 TO 28 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (16400-57600 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............99 99 98 99 99 100 100 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................76 75 69 66 65 64 62 RH..................69 71 84 93 93 97 100 20 FT WIND..........SE 5 SE 4 SE 4 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 3 3 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....48 58 16 16 20 26 26 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 28 TO 30 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 28 TO 30 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (18600-35100 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (75100-93700 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............100 100 93 85 78 82 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................61 61 65 68 70 70 RH..................100 100 90 84 81 81 20 FT WIND..........SE 5 SE 5 SE 5 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 LAL.................1 1 1 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....19 35 35 75 94 94 .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 31 MPH. LAL.................3 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1000 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 29 TO 31 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (44700-85500 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO FAIR TO FAIR (13800-23200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............88 92 94 98 100 100 WEATHER COV.........NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ISOLTD TEMP................68 65 64 62 62 61 RH..................87 97 97 97 93 97 20 FT WIND..........SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 6 SE 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 10 LAL.................3 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....86 45 45 23 16 16 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67. MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400-5700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400-5700 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 29 MPH. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (13000-35100 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (75400-107600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............100 100 96 91 87 78 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD TEMP................60 60 63 65 67 67 RH..................96 96 87 81 75 73 20 FT WIND..........SE 5 SE 5 S 5 S 5 S 5 SW 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 1 3 3 3 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....14 13 13 35 75 75 $$ FORECASTER...PADAVONA REQUESTED BY...SCOTT JACKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20110927.2011F.01/BGM