FNUS75 KGJT 271625
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIMMS MESA RX...FS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1025 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1015 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK ENERGY AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE...BUT VIRGA FROM SHOWERS
IS STILL POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON.  ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM THE
VIRGA SHAFTS SHOULD BE MONITORED...OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
TURN FROM TERRAIN DRIVEN THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT
7 TO 12 MPH AS MIXING INCREASES AROUND NOON. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN COLORADO TOMORROW AND WITH A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT...SMOKE DISPERSAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A CONCERN. HOWEVER SMOKE DISPERSAL
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE GOOD CATEGORY WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT STILL IN PLACE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 5 MPH OR LESS THROUGH
                    LATE MORNING BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN INCREASING TO
                    GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING...
                    INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....BECOMING WEST 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........58-63%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
                    DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 7 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO LESS
                    THAN 1000 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS THROUGH LATE MORNING
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO FAIR
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL OR LESS IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 8100 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...STEVE MUELLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110927.SIMMS.01/GJT