FNUS75 KPUB 271223
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR FOUR ELK...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
623 AM MDT TUE SEP 27 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT PASS NEAR THE BURN SITE.  THE
PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM ACTUALLY PASSING OVER THE
BURN SITE IS LOW.  EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR TOMORROW WITH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.  NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-17 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 1000 BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 4 TO 8 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 14000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45F.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE 2 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 0900 BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 4 TO 9 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 12000 FT AGL AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...SALIDA RANGER DISTRICT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110927.FOURE.01/PUB