FNUS75 KRIW 281014
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
414 AM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2056 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WILDFIRE AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK...DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE DIVIDE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHTER AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH...INCREASING TO 8-12 MPH
                    AROUND NOON. GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (40900-82100 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY OR
                    NORTHEAST 4-8 MPH BETWEEN 2200 AND MIDNIGHT.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH BETWEEN 2200 AND MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1400 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BY 2100.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-4400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...UPPER PALMER RX
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110927.ASPEN.01/RIW