FNUS71 KBGM 281424 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR 2011 FLOOD RECOVERY...NYS DEC FOREST RANGERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 1024 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0951 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 28. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO IS CAUSING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COME INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE HAS NOW PUSHED EASTWARD, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND SOME FLOODING TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SOME OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BREAK UP SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE RECOVERY AREA, BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF NOT ONLY AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING OVER OR IN THE VICINITY, BUT ONE THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY THINKING THE BEST TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL SEE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE UP TO ONE AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN LOCALIZED AREAS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING ...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. MIN HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............100 100 85 79 77 WEATHER COV.........S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................68 69 70 72 72 RH..................90 87 81 76 76 20 FT WIND..........SE 3 S 3 S 4 S 4 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. SHOWERS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. LAL.................2 UNTIL 0400...THEN 1. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............83 100 100 99 99 99 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC TEMP................70 66 64 63 62 61 RH..................81 93 97 100 100 100 20 FT WIND..........SE 4 SE 4 SE 4 SE 5 E 5 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 10 10 10 LAL.................2 2 2 2 2 1 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........ SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3 UNTIL 1700...THEN 2. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............99 100 82 76 75 75 WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTM COV............ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE TEMP................60 60 64 67 70 70 RH..................100 96 87 78 68 66 20 FT WIND..........S 3 SW 2 SW 3 SW 5 W 6 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 1 2 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...IPPOLITI REQUESTED BY...SCOTT JACKSON TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT .TAG 20110928.2011F.01/BGM