FNUS75 KRIW 291112
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
512 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2017 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST AND
NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER TODAY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. WARMER AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ON
SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-63.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH...BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
                    4-8 MPH AROUND NOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT ATL INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-18 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110928.ASPEN.01/RIW