FNUS75 KRIW 282324
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE RX...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
524 PM MDT WED SEP 28 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN...WITH LITTLE DAILY VARIABILITY
IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST
                    3-6 MPH...DEVELOPING BETWEEN 2000 AND 2200.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-1100 FT AGL
                    BY 2000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BY 2000.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......BECOMING SOUTHEAST 3-6 MPH BY 1000...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND
                    1400. GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH BY 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR AROUND 1300.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS 35-40. MAX RH AROUND 75 PERCENT. LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY
9 PM...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
SWITCHING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY AROUND MIDDAY. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. MIN RH SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT OCCURS THURSDAY.
MAX TEMP 75-80.

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...PHELPS MORAINE FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110929.PHELP.01/RIW