FNUS75 KRIW 291438
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE RX...NPS GTP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
838 AM MDT THU SEP 29 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0820 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY IN THE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
ON SUNDAY. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...LIPSON

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE FROM THE EAST AT 5-9 MPH. AFTER 1100 UPVALLEY
                    FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTER 1600 SOUTH SOUTHWEST
                    WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH AN OCCASIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY GUST
                    OF 25 MPH COMING OUT OF GRANITE CANYON. EDDYING IS EXPECTED
                    AFTER 1600.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5700 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12 TO
                    14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (16000-50300 KNOT-FT).

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-84 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DECREASING
                    TO 4 TO 7 MPH AFTER 2100. AFTER 0500
                    DOWNVALLEY FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (6400-40900 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72.
MIN HUMIDITY........14 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......EASTERLY UPSLOPE 5-9 MPH. AFTER 1100 SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.
                    AFTER 1400 SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH WITH AN
                    OCCASIONAL GUST OF 28 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF
                    GRANITE CANYON. EDDYING OF THE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 1400.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400-8400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 12 TO
                    13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (24300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (79100
                    KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...LIPSON
REQUESTED BY...RR IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110929.PHELP.02/RIW