FNUS75 KRIW 301125
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE RX...TETON INTERAGENCY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
525 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDDAY...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
MPH BY 2 PM. MINIMUM HUMIDITY AT THE BURN SITE THURSDAY WAS ABOUT 5
TO 10 PERCENT HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING NEARBY OBSERVATIONS...POSSIBLY
DUE TO A LACK OF MIXING AT THE FIRE SITE. SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IS
EXPECTED TODAY...THUS RH SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT LOWER THAN WHAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SURROUNDING
SITES.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SKIRT WESTERN WYOMING THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY. HOWEVER...A WETTING RAIN IS UNLIKELY. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR...MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 1000...THEN
                    SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND
                    1400...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH FOR THE REMAINDER
                    OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    10 MPH BETWEEN 1400 AND 1600.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300 FT AGL BY MID
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH BY NOON...THEN WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    15 MPH BY 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR AROUND NOON...THEN GOOD
                    BY 1500.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY OR NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (61200 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR BY 2100.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). VERY ISOLATED
                    HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-77.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 1000...THEN
                    SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND
                    1300...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH FOR
THE                     REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO
15 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.1 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (45700 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (124300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. VERY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...EIGHME
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110929.PHELP.03/RIW