FNUS75 KRIW 301139
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH HORSE CREEK...TETON INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
539 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1930 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...WITH MAINLY LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITH THE
WILDFIRE AREA EXPERIENCING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. ALSO...ISOLATED HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THE MAIN HAZARD
FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-81 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900 FT AGL BY 2000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BY 2000.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 20 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    TO WEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.2 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (53300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (117100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...S HORSE FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110929.SOUTH.01/RIW