FNUS75 KGJT 302248
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER MEADOWS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
448 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1610 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE FIRE LATE TODAY. A FEW MAY
YET DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH VALLEY INVERSIONS FORMING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. BE ALERT FOR THERMAL BELTS ON MID SLOPES AS THIS
OCCURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.


.TODAY (UNTIL 1900 MDT)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 12 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER 1900 MDT)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70%) UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-28% AT 1900...33-38% AT 2200...REACHING THE
                     MAXIMUM OF 53-58% BY 0200.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    2-4 MPH AFTER 2100. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP
                    TO 30 MPH NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-1000 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) UNTIL 1400...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....3-77 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 1-3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3-5 MPH BY 1200. AFTER
                    1400...SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR 1200...THEN FAIR. LOW END GOOD BETWEEN 1500
                    1700.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL AT 1200...INCREASING TO 10500 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING UPSLOPE. AFTER 1200...SOUTHWEST 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...HON SCHLAPHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110930.BEAVE.01/GJT