FNUS72 KMLB 300846
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BECK RANCH BR-14...SJRWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
446 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND NEAR THE SURFACE
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS
SCARCE SO A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR STORM WILL EXIST. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE BURN AREA. DISPERSION INDICES
WILL INCREASE FROM POOR EARLY THIS MORNING TO FAIR AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OF THE SEASON IS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S
NEAR/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4 ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND RH CONDITIONS TO REACH RED
FLAG CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3400-5000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....38.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR
WEATHER COV.....        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
WEATHER TYPE....        TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM TSM
TEMP............81  84  86  88  90  89  89  89  86  84  81  80
RH..............67  61  55  48  44  44  42  39  45  48  54  56
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..1   5   5   5   9   9   9   12  12  12  8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.                10  10  10  15  15  15  10  10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 700-2300 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8.
LVORI...............4.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....54.

$$
FORECASTER...SEDLOCK
REQUESTED BY...PETER HENN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110930.BECKR.01/MLB