FNUS75 KPUB 301114 CCA
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN RX...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

(CORRECTED TIME IN 20 FOOT WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.  ERRONEOUSLY
INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS UNTIL 2100 WHICH IS UTC TIME.  CORRECTED
TIME TO LOCAL TIME WHICH IS 1500.)

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SITE TODAY.
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE CIRCULATING BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER
THE BURN SITE THAT MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM.  OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE
WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND RHS ABOUT 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY.

WIND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH FROM NEAR THE SURFACE
UP THROUGH 10000 FEET AT GRID POINT NEAREST BURN SITE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY TODAY.  FLOW MAY SHIFT BRIEFLY TO LIGHT SOUTH
OR SOUTHEAST VERY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THEN IT GOES BACK
TO WEST NORTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT.  SINCE THE BURN SITE SEEMS
TO FAVOR CHANNELED NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WILL EXPECT THIS TO HAPPEN TODAY.

WIND FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON THE WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW.  MODELS STILL HAVE LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 1000 LOCAL TIME BUT THEN WINDS LOOK
TO BLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND THEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 6-9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 12 MPH POSSIBLE
                    AT TIMES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7500 FT AGL AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30 PERCENT). AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN SOUTHWEST 5 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN
                    SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110930.BLACK.01/PUB