FNUS75 KPUB 301808
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN RX...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1207 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

BASED ON FEEDBACK FROM THE BURN SITE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS OBSERVED AT THE FIRE AREA.  LATEST FORECAST
MODELS WEAKEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 3 PM...WITH GREATER
LIKELIHOOD THAT WINDS WILL STAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
AFTERNOON.  COULD STILL SEE THE NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AFTER 1600 AS
DEEPER MIXING TAPS THE NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT AS WINDS AT 13000 FEET MSL WILL BE WESTERLY AT 12 MPH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...THOUGH
THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIT OR MISS WITH RESPECT TO THE BURN AREA.

NORTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KICK IN THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  WEATHER PATTERN FOR SATURDAY APPEARS TO FAVOR THE RETURN OF
LIGHT SOUTHEAST AFTERNOON WINDS.


.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(29 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1600...THE NORTHWEST
                    6-12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN
                    FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(33 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-44F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN NORTH
                    4-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(27 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTHEAST
                    5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11000 FT AGL AFTER
                    1200.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN
                    POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...TORGERSON
REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110930.BLACK.01/PUB