FNUS75 KRIW 011151
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...TETON INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
551 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1959 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS FROM 1400 UNTIL 2100 TODAY.
ON SUNDAY A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...ROSS

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-27 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH AFTER 1100.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UP TO 35 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL 1100.
                    THEN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 13 MPH AFTER
                    1100 WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7000-8000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 4 TO 7 MPH
                    AFTER SUNSET.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING UP TO 35 MPH.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH UNTIL SUNSET.
                    THEN BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET.

LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 600-1100 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH
                    BY MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
                    THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1200
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH
                    GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.4 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6500-7500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200.
                    WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 38-43.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS AROUND 60.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 32-37.  HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 32-37. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...ROSS
REQUESTED BY...S HORSE FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110930.ASPEN.01/RIW