FNUS75 KRIW 011154
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR MEADOW FIRE...TETON INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
554 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1953 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE COULD
BE VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS.

A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WETTING RAIN
REMAINS SLIM. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT SHOT
AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-28 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BECOMING WEST TO
                    SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 MPH BY AROUND NOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.2 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (40100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (107300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
                    THROUGH 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-7 MPH. GUSTS UP
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL BY 2000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BY 2000.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 40.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...S HORSE FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20110930.MEADO.01/RIW