FNUS75 KRIW 011202
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR PHELPS MORAINE RX...TETON INTERAGENCY DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
602 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BUT RH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. SOME MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD
TODAY...RESULTING IN VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A SYSTEM SKIRTS
THE REGION...BUT A WETTING RAIN IS UNLIKELY. A MUCH STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MURRELL

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...WITH VERY
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 1000...THEN
                    SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH BETWEEN 1000 AND
                    1400...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH FOR THE REMAINDER
                    OF THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 15 MPH. GUSTIER
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
                    ACTIVITY.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
                    15 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.1 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7300 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BETWEEN NOON AND 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH
                    NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH BY AROUND 2000. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    2000.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2000...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.1 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1400 FT AGL BY 2000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING NORTH NORTHWEST
                    5-10 MPH AROUND 2000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR BY 2000.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST
                    4-8 MPH BETWEEN 1100 AND 1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MURRELL
REQUESTED BY...EIGHME
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20110930.PHELP.01/RIW