FNUS75 KBOU 012316 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST CREEK FIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 504 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100 WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED WITH ANY STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-59. MIN HUMIDITY........21-25% 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FEET AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-43. MAX HUMIDITY........40-45%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MIN HUMIDITY........22-26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 7-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 11000-12000 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. FAIR AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .SUNDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-43. MAX HUMIDITY........51-56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-61. MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-7 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 9800-10800 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. COLDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 7 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WEST CREEK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/01-17 41 10 2 63 23 W 5 5 3 2 W 8 10315 W 7 63436 G 10/01-18 51 10 2 62 24 W 5 5 3 2 W 8 9723 W 8 67122 G 10/01-19 51 10 2 58 28 W 5 5 3 2 W 8 6737 W 7 45653 F 10/01-20 51 10 2 55 31 W 5 5 3 2 SW 9 3751 NW 6 24185 P 10/01-21 32 2 0 53 32 W 5 5 3 1 SW 9 765 NW 5 2717 P 10/01-22 32 2 0 52 33 W 6 6 3 1 SW12 592 NW 5 2303 P 10/01-23 32 2 0 51 33 W 7 7 3 1 SW13 420 W 6 1890 P 10/02-00 24 0 0 49 35 W 8 13 3 1 SW14 247 W 7 1476 P 10/02-01 24 0 0 48 37 W 9 14 3 1 SW13 230 W 8 1500 P 10/02-02 24 0 0 47 40 W 9 16 3 1 SW10 213 W 8 1523 P 10/02-03 24 0 0 46 42 W10 16 3 1 SW 9 196 W 9 1546 P 10/02-04 24 0 0 45 42 W12 17 3 1 SW 9 193 W 9 1612 P 10/02-05 24 0 0 45 42 W12 18 3 1 SW10 190 W10 1678 P 10/02-06 33 3 1 44 42 W12 18 3 1 S12 187 W10 1745 P 10/02-07 33 3 1 46 40 W10 17 3 1 S12 800 W 9 4875 P 10/02-08 33 3 1 49 36 W 9 15 3 1 S10 1412 W 8 8006 P 10/02-09 33 3 1 54 31 W 8 13 3 1 S10 2025 W 6 11137 P 10/02-10 33 3 1 59 27 W 7 7 3 1 S12 5022 W 6 26735 P 10/02-11 33 3 1 61 26 W 7 7 3 1 S14 8019 SW 6 42333 F 10/02-12 54 23 5 63 26 W 6 6 3 3 S14 11016 SW 6 57931 F 10/02-13 54 23 5 64 26 W 6 6 3 3 S12 11385 SW 6 53740 F 10/02-14 54 23 5 64 26 W 5 5 3 3 SW 9 11753 SW 5 49548 F 10/02-15 54 23 5 65 26 W 5 5 3 3 SW 7 12121 W 5 45357 F 10/02-16 54 23 5 64 28 W 3 3 3 3 SW 6 11465 W 5 44694 F 10/02-17 54 23 5 63 31 CALM 1 3 3 W 6 10809 W 5 44030 F 10/02-18 68 30 9 62 33 CALM 1 3 4 W 6 10153 W 5 43367 F 10/02-19 68 30 9 58 38 W 2 2 3 4 SW 5 7117 W 6 30800 P 10/02-20 68 30 9 55 43 W 5 5 3 4 S 3 4081 NW 6 18234 P 10/02-21 68 30 9 53 45 W 7 7 3 4 SE 2 1045 NW 6 5667 P 10/02-22 68 30 9 52 47 NW 7 7 3 4 S 2 837 NW 6 4278 P 10/02-23 68 30 9 51 48 NW 6 6 3 4 S 3 629 N 5 2888 P 10/03-00 31 0 0 49 50 NW 5 5 3 1 SW 5 421 N 5 1498 P 10/03-01 31 0 0 48 51 NW 5 5 3 1 SW 6 356 N 5 1386 P 10/03-02 31 0 0 47 53 W 6 6 3 1 SW 7 291 NW 6 1273 P 10/03-03 31 0 0 46 54 W 7 7 3 1 SW 8 227 W 6 1161 P 10/03-04 31 0 0 45 55 W 7 7 3 1 SW 8 219 W 6 1068 P 10/03-05 31 0 0 45 56 W 7 7 3 1 SW 7 212 W 6 975 P 10/03-06 31 0 0 44 56 W 7 7 3 1 SW 7 204 W 5 881 P 10/03-07 31 0 0 46 52 W 6 6 3 1 SW 5 873 W 5 1994 P 10/03-08 31 0 0 49 46 W 5 5 3 1 SW 3 1541 SW 3 3106 P 10/03-09 31 0 0 53 38 SW 3 3 3 1 SW 3 2209 S 2 4219 P 10/03-10 31 0 0 58 32 SW 5 5 3 1 SW 5 4863 S 3 20907 P 10/03-11 31 0 0 60 30 S 6 6 3 1 S 7 7516 S 5 37595 P 10/03-12 54 30 9 61 29 SE 7 7 3 4 S 9 10169 S 6 54283 F 10/03-13 54 30 9 62 29 SE 7 7 3 4 S12 10399 S 7 60059 G 10/03-14 54 30 9 63 31 SE 7 7 3 4 S13 10629 S 7 65834 G 10/03-15 54 30 9 63 32 S 7 7 3 4 SW14 10859 S 8 71610 G 10/03-16 54 30 9 63 35 S 7 7 3 4 SW14 10327 S 8 67708 G 10/03-17 54 30 9 62 39 S 6 6 3 4 SW13 9796 S 8 63806 G 10/03-18 54 30 9 60 42 S 6 6 3 4 SW13 9265 S 7 59905 F 10/03-19 54 30 9 57 46 S 6 6 3 4 SW13 6391 SW 7 41216 F 10/03-20 54 30 9 54 49 SW 6 6 3 4 SW15 3517 SW 7 22528 P 10/03-21 54 30 9 52 49 SW 6 6 3 4 S16 644 SW 7 3840 P 10/03-22 54 30 9 51 48 SW 6 6 3 4 S20 509 SW 7 2952 P 10/03-23 54 30 9 50 47 SW 7 7 3 4 SW23 374 SW 6 2063 P 10/04-00 37 0 0 48 48 SW 7 7 3 1 SW25 239 SW 6 1175 P 10/04-01 37 0 0 47 49 SW 8 8 3 1 SW25 229 SW 6 1249 P 10/04-02 37 0 0 46 52 W 8 8 2 1 SW24 219 SW 7 1324 P 10/04-03 37 0 0 45 54 W 9 9 2 1 SW23 209 SW 8 1399 P 10/04-04 37 0 0 45 56 W10 10 2 1 SW22 209 SW 8 1490 P 10/04-05 37 0 0 44 58 W10 10 3 1 SW21 209 SW 9 1581 P 10/04-06 37 0 0 44 60 W10 10 3 1 SW20 209 SW 9 1673 P 10/04-07 37 0 0 45 56 W10 10 3 1 SW18 797 W10 8409 P 10/04-08 37 0 0 48 50 W 9 9 3 1 S18 1385 W12 15145 P 10/04-09 37 0 0 52 42 W 9 9 3 1 S18 1973 W13 21881 P 10/04-10 37 0 0 55 36 W 9 9 3 1 S20 3675 W13 43210 F 10/04-11 37 0 0 57 33 W10 10 3 1 SW22 5377 SW14 64540 G 10/04-12 56 20 4 58 31 W12 18 3 3 SW23 7079 SW14 85869 G 10/04-13 56 20 4 59 31 W13 20 3 3 SW24 7277 SW16 100372 V 10/04-14 56 20 4 59 32 SW13 20 3 3 SW25 7474 SW17 114875 V 10/04-15 56 20 4 60 33 SW13 21 3 3 SW25 7671 SW20 129378 V 10/04-16 56 20 4 59 36 SW13 20 3 3 SW25 6992 SW18 111639 V 10/04-17 56 20 4 58 39 W13 20 3 3 S24 6312 SW17 93900 G 10/04-18 56 20 4 57 42 W12 18 3 3 S23 5632 SW16 76161 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111001.WESTC.01/BOU