FNUS75 KCYS 012116
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
316 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1408 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

....DISCUSSION...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH
TUESDAY ALONG WITH DAYTIME GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. THE
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
AT LEAST A WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL WYOMING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE MAINLY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THOSE FACTORS WILL PRODUCE NEAR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE FIRE
SITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING WITH A FEW
                    SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AREA. THEN MOSTLY
                    CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH...DECREASING TO
                    4 TO 8 MPH BY 8 PM.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT (2100 KNOT-FT).

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 TO 21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 16 MPH.
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT (44800-151900 KNOT-FT) BY
                    MIDDAY.


.OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...
VERY WARM AND DRY WITH DAYTIME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...A WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FIRE SITE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY
ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND COOLING TO THE LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT...WITH GIGHER VALUES
FOR FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER...WEILAND
REQUESTED BY...ZACH HARTSHORN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111001.FERRI.01/CYS