FNUS75 KGJT 301658
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY PARK...UT-MLF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1058 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0950 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS AREA TONIGHT AND WILL
BE SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN TO BURNING OPERATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LIGHT WINDS
TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE AND REDUCED SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS.
FAVORABLE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO HEATING AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
RIDGE...WITH FAIR CONDITIONS OR CLEARING INDEXES ABOVE 500 EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE SMOKE SHOULD SETTLE QUICKLY NEAR SUNSET AS MODERATE
SURFACE INVERSIONS BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
BEGIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO
EXPECT MORE CLOUD WHICH MAY FURTHER INHIBIT DISPERSAL CONDITIONS BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WHICH MAY PUSH MIXING
HEIGHTS UPWARD TEMPORARILY.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH LATE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1300. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING TO FAIR
                    BY MID AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......INCREASING TO 600 BY MID AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 8400 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE AT 3 TO 8 MPH BY SUNSET. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
CLEARING INDEX......350 DECREASING TO 50 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO FAIR IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 600.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH LATE MORNING
                    INCREASING TO 9300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...TYKO ISAACSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111001.CHIMN.01/GJT