FNUS75 KGJT 012346
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHIMNEY PARK...USFS - MIFC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
546 PM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO MOVE OVER THE BURN SITE. IN ADDITION
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS PULLING UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THESE
THREE CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWING STORMS AND SHOWERS TO FORM. MOST OF
THEM WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET BEFORE FIRING UP AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE STRONGER.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
FORM. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
FROM THE SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A REPEAT PERFORMANCE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MONDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.


.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY 2PM.
CLEARING INDEX......50 INCREASING TO 850.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.


SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.


.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 12 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR BY MID-MORNING INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD BY 1PM.
CLEARING INDEX......100 INCREASING TO 1050.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...MIFC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111001.CHIMN.02/GJT