FNUS75 KMSO 010239
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR CAVE POINT EMB
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
839 PM MDT FRI SEP 30 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 2056 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A MOIST UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
KEEP WARM...BREEZY AND AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE FIRE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL/TERRAIN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
FIRE AND BREEZY RIDGE TOP WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...BUT DRY LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT FROM VIRGA NEAR THE FIRE. DESPITE INCREASED
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS
READINGS. WINDS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE FIRE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWER
ELEVATION WINDS NOT MIXING OUT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TOP OF THE FIRE WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THREAT OF CUMULUS BUILDUP/VIRGA WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE FIRE.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 BOTTOM...69-74 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT BOTTOM...19-24 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-8 MPH. GUSTS TO 15 MPH
                    AFTER 1200 MDT. GUSTS TO 25 MPH NEAR ANY
                    SHOWERS.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
MAX HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT BOTTOM...37-43 PERCENT TOP.
WIND (20 FT)........BOTTOM...SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-8 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 2-5 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
                    TOP...SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 BOTTOM...66-71 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BOTTOM...UPSLOPE 3-5 MPH...BECOMING WEST WINDS 5-8
                    MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
                    TOP...SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH...GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON .

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...JAREL KURTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20111001.CAVEP.01/MSO