FNUS75 KPUB 011113 FWSPUB SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MTN RX...UNITED STATES FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 513 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE BURN SITE. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE WIND FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. APPARENTLY...WINDS AT THE BLACK MOUNTAIN RAWS SITE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF WINDS AT THE ACTUAL BURN SITE BASED ON MANUAL OBSERVATIONS RECEIVED YESTERDAY. FORECAST ISSUED YESTERDAY MORNING WAS BASED ON BLACK MOUNTAIN RAWS WIND DATA AND WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE MARK FROM WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURRED. MANUAL OBSERVATIONS AT THE BURN SITE...ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATED WINDS THAT WERE OPPOSITE IN DIRECTION AND MUCH LIGHTER THAN WHAT OCCURRED AT THE RAWS. THIS MAKES THE WIND FORECAST QUITE A CHALLENGE WITHOUT REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS. IS THERE ANY CHANCE THAT MORE REPRESENTATIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACTUAL BURN SITE CAN BE PROVIDED? FORECAST FOR TODAY CONSIDERS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AT THE BURN SITE...AND TRIES TO INCORPORATE WHAT THE MODELS ARE SAYING THIS MORNING. THE MODELS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TO 10000 FOOT LAYER UNTIL AROUND 1200...AND THEN INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 1500. SINCE SOUTHEAST WINDS OCCURRED AT THE BURN SITE YESTERDAY...WOULD SUSPECT THAT THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN BETTER THAN YESTERDAY. MODELS HAVE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO DRAINAGE FLOWS AGAIN OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TO 10000 FOOT LAYER ALL DAY SO WOULD SUSPECT A RETURN OF SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE BURN SITE. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY SUNNY (55 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78F. MIN HUMIDITY........13-18 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH BY 1200...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10-20 MPH BY 1500. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11500 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. FAIR AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (35 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45F. MAX HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 500 FT AGL AFTER 2100. TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40 PERCENT). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WIND........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH BY 1200. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 11500 FT AGL AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3. $$ FORECASTER...WALROD REQUESTED BY...PUEBLO DISPATCH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111001.BLACK.01/PUB