FNUS75 KRIW 021120 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...BRIDGER-TETON NATIONAL FOREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 520 AM MDT SUN OCT 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1937 MDT ON OCTOBER 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OCCUR TODAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH 1200. THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY. A SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP. A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...ROSS .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1200. WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AT TIMES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 30 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200. WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.6 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5000-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200. THEN SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100 WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PARTLY CLOUDY BY MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........70-75 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH UNTIL 2000. THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH AFTER 2000. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TO 30 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2100. THEN BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 9 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.3 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 800-1200 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AT 15 MPH UNTIL 2100. THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD...DECREASING TO FAIR BY 2100...DECREASING TO POOR BY MIDNIGHT. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1200. THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY 1500. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66. MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE AT 3 TO 6 MPH UNTIL 1200. WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH AFTER 1200 WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH AT TIMES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 30 MPH. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200. WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6000-7000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL 1200. SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOWS 30-35. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. .THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 25-30. HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...ROSS REQUESTED BY...ASPEN CREEK FEMO REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111001.ASPEN.01/RIW