FNUS75 KRIW 011410
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH HORSE CREEK...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
810 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0754 MDT ON OCTOBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IN SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FIRE AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY.  ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE AIR MASS STABILIZES.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) AFTER 1 PM MDT.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........22-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 12 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7100-8100 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (126500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37 TO 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........81-84 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH AND GUSTY. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900-5900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (99600 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (18000
                    KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........27-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-7600 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (37500 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (108500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...FLATHEAD HOT SHOTS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111001.SOUTH.01/RIW