FNUS75 KBOU 022046 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST CREEK FIRE...NPS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 246 PM MDT SUN OCT 2 2011 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID EVENING. OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CONDITIONS MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-66. MIN HUMIDITY........22-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 4 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000-12000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2400...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 3-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2100. MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER 2200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-66. MIN HUMIDITY........23-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-7 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 9400-10400 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW. FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR WEST CREEK FIRE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE FORECAST DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/02-14 57 20 4 63 27 W 5 5 3 3 SW 9 11753 SW 5 49548 F 10/02-15 57 20 4 64 27 W 5 5 3 3 SW 7 12121 W 5 45357 F 10/02-16 57 20 4 63 30 W 5 5 3 3 SW 6 11465 W 5 44694 F 10/02-17 57 20 4 62 32 W 5 5 3 3 W 6 10809 W 5 44030 F 10/02-18 61 23 5 61 35 W 5 5 3 3 W 6 10153 W 5 43367 F 10/02-19 61 23 5 57 39 W 5 5 3 3 SW 5 7117 W 6 30800 P 10/02-20 61 23 5 54 43 W 3 3 3 3 S 3 4081 NW 6 18234 P 10/02-21 61 23 5 53 44 W 3 3 3 3 SE 2 1045 NW 6 5667 P 10/02-22 61 23 5 51 45 W 3 3 3 3 S 2 837 NW 6 4278 P 10/02-23 61 23 5 50 46 W 5 5 3 3 S 3 629 N 5 2888 P 10/03-00 43 0 0 49 47 W 6 6 3 1 SW 5 421 N 5 1498 P 10/03-01 43 0 0 48 48 W 6 6 3 1 SW 6 356 N 5 1386 P 10/03-02 43 0 0 47 49 W 7 7 3 1 SW 7 291 NW 6 1273 P 10/03-03 7 0 0 46 50 W 7 7 3 1 SW 8 227 W 6 1161 P 10/03-04 7 0 0 45 52 W 7 7 3 1 SW 8 219 W 6 1068 P 10/03-05 7 0 0 45 54 W 7 7 3 1 SW 7 212 W 6 975 P 10/03-06 55 0 0 45 56 W 7 7 3 1 S 9 214 W 5 897 P 10/03-07 55 0 0 46 53 W 6 6 3 1 S 9 1095 W 5 2629 P 10/03-08 55 0 0 49 47 W 5 5 2 1 S 9 1977 S 3 4360 P 10/03-09 55 0 0 53 39 W 2 2 2 1 S 9 2859 S 2 6092 P 10/03-10 55 0 0 58 33 SW 3 3 2 1 S 9 5134 S 5 30782 P 10/03-11 55 0 0 60 31 S 5 5 2 1 S10 7410 S 7 55471 F 10/03-12 54 28 8 61 29 SE 6 6 2 4 S12 9685 S 9 80161 G 10/03-13 54 28 8 62 28 SE 6 6 2 4 S12 9898 S 9 80784 G 10/03-14 54 28 8 63 28 SE 6 6 2 4 SW13 10110 S 9 81406 G 10/03-15 54 28 8 63 28 S 6 6 2 4 SW14 10323 S 9 82029 G 10/03-16 54 28 8 63 29 SE 6 6 2 4 SW15 9759 S 9 74837 G 10/03-17 54 28 8 62 30 SE 7 7 3 4 SW16 9196 S 8 67646 G 10/03-18 53 28 8 60 32 SE 7 7 3 4 SW16 8633 S 8 60454 G 10/03-19 53 28 8 56 36 S 8 8 3 4 SW15 6780 S 9 51134 F 10/03-20 53 28 8 53 40 S 9 9 2 4 S13 4928 S10 41814 F 10/03-21 53 28 8 52 43 SW 9 9 2 4 S13 3075 S13 32494 P 10/03-22 53 28 8 50 45 SW 8 8 2 4 S15 2190 S10 22610 P 10/03-23 53 28 8 49 46 SW 7 7 3 4 SW17 1305 S 9 12726 P 10/04-00 53 10 2 47 49 SW 6 6 3 1 SW20 420 S 8 2841 P 10/04-01 53 10 2 46 52 SW 6 6 3 1 SW20 347 SW 8 2310 P 10/04-02 53 10 2 45 54 W 6 6 3 1 SW20 274 SW 7 1778 P 10/04-03 53 10 2 44 56 W 7 7 3 1 SW18 202 SW 7 1247 P 10/04-04 53 10 2 44 57 W 7 7 3 1 S17 202 SW 7 1273 P 10/04-05 53 10 2 43 58 W 8 8 3 1 S17 201 W 7 1299 P 10/04-06 44 10 2 43 59 W 8 8 3 1 S18 201 W 8 1324 P 10/04-07 44 10 2 44 55 W 8 8 3 1 S20 837 W 9 9067 P 10/04-08 44 10 2 47 48 W 9 9 3 1 S22 1472 W12 16810 P 10/04-09 44 10 2 52 40 W 9 9 3 1 S23 2107 W14 24552 P 10/04-10 44 10 2 56 34 W 9 9 3 1 S24 3697 SW14 44580 F 10/04-11 44 10 2 58 31 SW 8 8 2 1 SW24 5287 SW14 64609 G 10/04-12 56 30 9 60 30 SW 8 8 2 4 SW24 6877 SW14 84637 G 10/04-13 56 30 9 61 29 SW 9 9 2 4 SW23 7289 SW15 91442 G 10/04-14 56 30 9 61 30 SW 9 9 2 4 SW22 7700 SW15 98247 G 10/04-15 56 30 9 62 30 SW10 10 2 4 SW22 8111 SW15 105052 V 10/04-16 56 30 9 61 33 SW10 10 2 4 S23 7511 SW15 94473 G 10/04-17 56 30 9 60 35 W10 10 2 4 S24 6910 SW14 83894 G 10/04-18 56 30 9 59 38 W10 10 2 4 S25 6309 S14 73315 G 10/04-19 56 30 9 55 44 W10 10 2 4 S25 4739 SW15 57298 F 10/04-20 56 30 9 52 49 W10 10 2 4 S24 3170 SW16 41281 F 10/04-21 56 30 9 50 51 W10 10 2 4 S23 1600 SW18 25265 P 10/04-22 56 30 9 49 53 W10 10 2 4 SW24 1233 SW17 18983 P 10/04-23 56 30 9 48 55 W10 10 3 4 SW25 865 SW16 12701 P 10/05-00 32 0 0 46 57 W10 10 3 1 SW26 498 SW15 6419 P 10/05-01 32 0 0 45 60 W10 10 3 1 SW26 439 SW14 5237 P 10/05-02 32 0 0 44 62 W 9 9 2 1 SW25 380 W12 4055 P 10/05-03 32 0 0 43 64 W 9 9 2 1 S24 321 W10 2872 P 10/05-04 32 0 0 42 65 W 9 9 2 1 S22 339 W 9 2731 P 10/05-05 32 0 0 42 66 W 8 8 2 1 S20 356 W 8 2589 P 10/05-06 38 10 2 42 65 W 8 8 2 1 S16 374 W 8 2447 P 10/05-07 38 10 2 43 60 SW 7 7 1 10/05-08 38 10 2 45 55 SW 7 7 1 10/05-09 38 10 2 48 46 SW 6 6 1 10/05-10 38 10 2 51 39 SW 5 5 1 10/05-11 38 10 2 53 36 S 3 3 1 10/05-12 64 31 10 54 33 S 3 3 4 10/05-13 64 31 10 54 33 S 3 3 4 10/05-14 64 31 10 55 32 S 3 3 4 10/05-15 64 31 10 55 32 S 5 5 4 10/05-16 64 31 10 55 33 S 6 6 4 10/05-17 64 31 10 54 35 S 6 6 4 10/05-18 57 15 3 52 37 S 7 7 3 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/ WR - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.1 INCH /PERCENT/ AT - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E- EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY IC REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111002.WESTC.01/BOU