FNUS75 KCYS 021559 FWSCYS SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS MOUNTAIN...BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 959 AM MDT SUN OCT 2 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0908 MDT ON OCTOBER 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE FIRE SITE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY... .DISCUSSION... SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EASTERN WYOMING BORDER DURING THAT TIME. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER WYOMING THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH DAYTIME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THAT ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND A LIGHT NON WETTING RAINFALL. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........18 TO 20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 5 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT BY MIDDAY (222900 KNOT-FT). .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46. MAX HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-7 MPH. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......20000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING. THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AROUND 5 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY MIDNIGHT (1400 KNOT-FT). .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON (30-40 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........19 TO 21 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........BECOMING SOUTHWEST 8 TO 14 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 22 MPH. CWR.................5 PERCENT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT (184300 KNOT-FT) BY MIDDAY. .OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... VERY WARM AND DRY WITH DAYTIME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE SITE THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FIRE SITE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH STRONGER WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND COOLING TO 45 TO 55 FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT... WITH HIGHER VALUES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 25 MPH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS EACH DAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. $$ FORECASTER...WEILAND REQUESTED BY...ZACH HARTSHORN TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20111002.FERRI.01/CYS