FNUS75 KRIW 031052
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ASPEN CREEK FIRE...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
452 AM MDT MON OCT 3 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2017 MDT ON OCTOBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FIRE TODAY...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY. A TREND TOWARD COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER WILL BEGIN
TUESDAY AS THE FIRST WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN WYOMING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT
APPROACHES. A MUCH MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL PLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...MEUNIER

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) IN THE MORNING.
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER 1500. ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY/DOWNSLOPE 4 TO 8 MPH THROUGH 1000...
                    BECOMING SOUTH SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH LATE
                    MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL THROUGH 1000...INCREASING TO
                    6700-7700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000...INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-76 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH THROUGH 2000
                    THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH 2100 THEN SOUTHEAST
                    5 TO 10 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...BECOMING POOR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-59.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-36 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.10 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900-3900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200-6200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...COLDER. CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...MEUNIER
REQUESTED BY...ASPEN FEMO
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111002.ASPEN.01/RIW