FNUS75 KRIW 021427
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH HORSE CREEK...IA TDC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
827 AM MDT SUN OCT 2 2011

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0758 MDT ON OCTOBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE FIRE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
SUNLIGHT THE AREA IS ABLE TO SEE THIS MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT THIS EVENING.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE ON MONDAY AS THE
OVERALL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE FIRE. TODAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF
THE WEEK...WITH STEADILY COOLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS A STRONG
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...BRANHAM

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY 1100. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING BECOMING SCATTERED
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-38 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.11 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH...BECOMING 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6600-7600 FT AGL
                    BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (48200 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (115600 KNOT-FT) BY 1400.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) BY 2200. SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
                    2100...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-86 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY THROUGH
                    2200...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4-7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 300-1100 FT AGL BY 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (77100 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (9600
                    KNOT-FT) BY 0200

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) BY 1100. ISOLATED
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING SCATTERED
                    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-32 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.7 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........BECOMING 4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH BY 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200-8700 FT AGL
                    BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (35400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (109200 KNOT-FT) BY 1500.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

.THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER...BRANHAM
REQUESTED BY...UPPER PALMER CREEK
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20111002.SOUTH.01/RIW