FNUS75 KRIW 011208 FWSRIW SPOT FORECAST FOR WIENER RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 608 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2011 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MDT ON OCTOBER 02. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... VERY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THERE COULD BE VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UPVALLEY/UPSLOPE FROM 10 AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE EXCEPTION WILL PROBABLY BE NEAR THE VALLEY BOTTOMS OF THE NORTH FORK MURPHY AND WEINER CREEK DRAINAGES WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD OCCUR. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A WETTING RAIN REMAINS VERY SLIM. A MUCH STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... ...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT... FORECASTER...MURRELL .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) WITH VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70 AT 8600 FT. AROUND 80 AT 6800 FT. MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT ALL ELEVATIONS. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AROUND 1400. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BY AROUND 1400 ALONG THE VALLEY BOTTOMS IN THE NORTH FORK MURPHY AND WEINER CREEK DRAINAGES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH AROUND NOON. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-38 VALLEY FLOOR. 43-47 RIDGE TOP. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT VALLEY. 50-55 PERCENT RIDGE. 20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-9 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-7 MPH BY 2000. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 FT AGL BY 2100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD DECREASING TO POOR BY 2100. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT. 20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (30300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (92100 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. LOWS AROUND 40. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. MIN RH 30-35 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. $$ FORECASTER...MURRELL REQUESTED BY...DWAYNE GIBBONS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20111002.WIENE.01/RIW